Dominic M. Calabro: Florida needs an accurate census count

An estimated 750,000 Floridians were not counted in the 2020 Census, creating an enormous negative impact throughout that decade. As a result, Florida was one of six states with a statistically significant undercount. Meanwhile, eight states—Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Utah—received statistically significant overcounts.

Florida TaxWatch’s most recent briefing calculated that the census undercount cost Florida at least one new seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Considering the margin of error, Florida could have lost as many as two additional representative seats and two additional votes in the electoral college. As one of the fastest growing states in the nation, our population’s relative share of representation per person naturally shrinks throughout the decade—the census undercount puts us behind the starting line.

In addition to Florida, Tennessee and Texas would have each gained an additional legislative seat. Colorado, Minnesota, and Rhode Island would have each lost a seat. The three states that would have gained a seat are red states. The three states that would have lost a seat are blue states.

The political implications are undeniable.

In a narrowly divided Congress, one seat can make a difference whether a bill passes. In a close presidential election, one seat could provide Floridians with the electoral vote needed to elect their candidate of choice.

Our country is a constitutional democratic republic. It is imperative that every citizen receives the representation they deserve, no more and most certainly no less.

The importance of proper representation is a current focus point for national policymakers. Recently, U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announced that she plans to introduce a bill to Congress that requires a new census count that only counts U.S. citizens. In doing so, she hopes to align apportionment with the population our country bears the responsibility to serve.

Article I §2 of the U.S. States Constitution clearly states that “every free person” is to be counted for apportionment. Such a change would need to withstand constitutional scrutiny, which may prove challenging. The consistency of the rule of law is critical to maintaining a sense of fairness and order.

Even if it did withstand challenges, it will take time and disciplined, consistent efforts across all 50 states to prepare for the next census count.

The U.S. Census Bureau follows a 10-year roadmap as it plans for the 2030 Census. Milestones include comprehensive reviews of the last census, evaluations and experiments to improve question design and delivery, and ground tests to refine operations.

The U.S. Census Bureau also collaborates with local governments to compile an update of local addresses, which helps enumerators contact all residents. Furthermore, if new policies exclude noncitizens, the U.S. Census Bureau would need time to adapt their strategies.

Florida must also be ready, and preparations should start with a lookback to 2010. The state legislature budgeted nearly $900,000 to provide technical assistance and training to local government to support the update of addresses for the census. The Executive Office of the Governor took responsibility for coordinating with the U.S. Census Bureau and the state’s 67 counties. This commitment from state leaders secured a more accurate census count.

In addition to commitment from state leadership, the census count also needs the commitment of business and community leaders. Investments in grassroot movements, especially when made far enough in advance to plan of 2030, can encourage the response of hard-to-reach populations.

Florida knows what’s at stake when a census count is conducted poorly. I urge our nation and our state to properly prepare for the next census count.